1、German Council on Foreign RelationsANALYSISNo.3March 2022The China Factor in Russias WarImplications for EuropeIn Russias war against Ukraine,the fronts are clear:The European Union supports Ukraine;China stands by Russia.While the conflict is exacerbating long-term regulatory,geopolitical,and econo
2、mic divergences between the EU and China,their short-term priorities overlap.Both are striving for a negotiated solution.If the European Union deals with China,it must defend its own values and inter-ests,mind its long-term room for maneuver,and learn to defuse tensions.This DGAP Analysis,which is b
3、ased on five scenarios,shows how.Although neither the outbreak of the war nor its prolongation is in Chinas interest,a defeat for Russia is a horror scenario that Chinese leadership wants to avoid.China currently standing with Putin does not mean that its sup-port is absolute.Chinas position on Russ
4、ia will alter depending on the situation in Ukraine,which could develop along at least five scenarios:a short war,a long war,NATOs decisive entry,a negotiated settlement,and a Russian coup.Central to Chinas calculus in each scenario is its assessment of how the war affects its long-term regulatory,g
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