1、SOCIOCULTURAL RUNNING ESTIMATE2025 Issue 22WAR IN UKRAINEAPPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE.DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED.Internal Challenges for Post-War UkraineIn This Running Estimate Domestic support for Putin remains high,and support for Russias so-called“special military operation(SMO)”remains strong.How
2、ever,confidence in the SMOs success has declined slightly,and many Russians support negotiations to end the war.As Ukraine anticipates a long-term recovery phase,three emerging dynamics threaten to undermine national resilience:the widespread proliferation of weapons across the country since the 202
3、2 outbreak of hostilities,societal trauma exacerbated by disrupted families and unaddressed psychological harm,and a significant brain drain of skilled young professionals seeking opportunities abroad.These trends could reduce Ukraines ability to rebuild state capacity,reintegrate veterans and war r
4、efugees into society,rebuild communities,and sustain democratic momentum,presenting new vulnerabilities exploitable by adversaries(namely Russia).Drawing lessons from other post-conflict zones,such as Colombia and the Balkans,can help inform Ukraines long-term recovery,directly connecting research f
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